Can ‘Toy Story 5’ beat ‘Super Mario Galaxy Movie’ and ‘Zootopia 2’ at the box office?

Disney Pixar’s ‘Toy Story 5’ is heading toward the biggest box office opening weekend in the franchise’s history. Industry trackers expect the film to pull in $275 million worldwide. That number would beat every previous ‘Toy Story’ release at the global box office.

In North America, the film is projected to open at $140 million. That places it at 4,425 theaters nationwide. If the estimate holds, it becomes the strongest domestic debut of any film in 2026 so far.

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The movie will play across all major premium formats. This includes premium large format screens and Imax. These formats tend to boost ticket prices and overall revenue per screening.

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International box office adds most of the total

Overseas markets account for $135 million of the projected total. That comes from roughly 87% of international markets, including China. Two major markets are missing from this opening weekend. Japan opens the film on July 3. Germany follows on July 23.

Germany’s later date lines up with the release of Illumination and Universal’s ‘Minions & Monsters’. That film is expected to perform strongly with German audiences during the same window.

Beating Toy Story 4’s long-standing record

The previous high mark for the franchise belonged to 2019’s ‘Toy Story 4’. That film opened domestically at $120.9 million. Its worldwide opening came in at $249 million, based on comparable currency adjustments.

At the time, those numbers actually fell short of forecasts. Analysts had projected a $160 million domestic start and $260 million worldwide for ‘Toy Story 4’. So even a strong opening can land below expectations, depending on how high the bar is set beforehand.

Forecast adjusted slightly lower in recent weeks

Earlier projections had ‘Toy Story 5’ pegged for a $150 million domestic start. That number has since been revised down to $140 million.

Presale ticket data offers some context. Presales currently sit at $25 million. That puts the film ahead of ‘The Super Mario Galaxy Movie’ at the same point in its release cycle. It also places ‘Toy Story 5’ ahead of ‘Zootopia 2’, which opened to $100.2 million over three days and $158.8 million over five days.

However, the film is trailing ‘Moana 2’. That title opened to $139.7 million over three days and $225.4 million across five days.

One factor complicating forecasts is the Juneteenth holiday. It falls this Friday, the same weekend as the release. Holiday timing typically increases Friday turnout. That makes Saturday’s performance harder to predict this time around.

Pixar’s track record at the domestic box office

‘Incredibles 2’ still holds Pixar’s all-time domestic opening record. That film debuted at $182.6 million.

Globally, the record belongs to ‘Inside Out 2’. The 2024 release opened to $384 million worldwide. That broke down to $230 million from international markets and $154 million domestically.

‘Toy Story 5’ is not expected to beat either of those marks. It is expected to set a new high specifically within its own franchise.